The other day Chris Olds posted on the Beckett blog comparing the value of Lebron and Dirk Nowitzkis various cards. The point being even though Dirk won the title Lebron is the king of cards. It would be hard to argue otherwise. Love him or not Lebron is still number one as far as hoops cards go.
In a round about way the Beckett post comparing Dirk and Lebron shows a key point in card values. What a player might do in their career is more importent than what they have done. I will use the Dirk Vs Lebron comparison to illustrate my point.
On paper both guys have similar resumes:
Dirk has an MVP, 10 time All Star, 4 time All NBA.
Lebron has 2 MVPs, 7 time All Star, 5 time all NBA.
By any measure both are bonafide super stars. Now Dirk has one championship to Lebron’s zero. Based on all this you would think they would have similar card values, not even close. But why?
The reason is at its core the finical side of card collecting is based on investment. Meaning collectors buy cards they think will increase in value. By doing so they drive up the demand and price of that players cards. This can clearly be seen in the prospecting market. Look at last year and Strausburg. His value wasn’t based on just on field performance. It was based on the hope he would continue his pace and one day be one of the all time greats. If you need further proof just check ebay when a big name prospect gets their first call up. In many cases a players value will peak right around their first start. The reason is the anticipation of what might be.
What might be is far more interesting than what is or what was.
Look back to the ’80s for another example. Bo Jackson was a beast in the day. His cards were in the top 3 most valuable from the epic group of ’87 rookies. Then he got hurt. His value plummeted. All that he had done still existed, the problem was he wasn’t going to do any more. What might be was gone.
More recently look at Joe Mauer’s cards. When he signed his massive contract after his MVP award and 3rd batting title his cards were sky high. Today, after missing most of the season so far, his card have dropped again. He still has his MVP and batting titles but there is now doubt as to whether or not he will get anymore. The what might be is in doubt.
Lets take it to the end of a players career. When a guy retires you get a little jump, I am talking about stars here, potential HOFers. The reason you see a jump is because there is one last what might be, that is the HOF. As a player nears eligibility, the more of a lock he is for the HOF the more you see a jump in his cards. Look at Andre Dawson recently.
No one thought much about his cards until HOF time rolled around. His career was done, he wasn’t going to add to his credentials but the prospect of getting into the hall gave him a boost. Once he was in and the last what might be was gone his cards settled back down.
Taking it full circle back to Lebron and Dirk. What they do today will have an impact on value, but not as much as what they might do in the future, or more correctly what we think they might do. If Lebron never plays another game his cards will drop in value just like Bo Jackson’s did back in the day.
I think most collectors get this, but for those screaming why some prospect is worth more than this star or that, remember, it’s the what might be that matters.
-K-
I get all of that, and I’m an old dinosaur compared to the collectors who have known nothing but rookie-card buzz (it didn’t exist pre-1980). But to me “what is” and “what was” is way more interesting, much more valued, and more important than “what might be.” But I’ll never be a card investor.
Exciting may have been a better word than interesting