Not a fan of sabremetrics…

So Miggy knocked off Mike Trout for AL MVP.

Photobucket

Good

I am a fan of Mike Trout but if you win the Triple Crown you get to be MVP, no questions!

Watching all the various baseball pundits debate the two sluggers that last few weeks it became a battle of old school versus new school. Miggy represented the old school straight stats and x-factor guys and Trout represented the new school cold and calculated sabremetric guys.

This kinda pissed me off a little. Let me let you in on a little secret. I hate sabremetrics, HATE IT!

It’s nerdy to the n-th degree and I will argue it doesn’t really get results.

If it was the secret key to baseball success where are all of Bill Beans rings? But what about Theo Epstein you say. He was a sabremetrics guy. Yeah but he also had the second highest pay role in baseball so it kinda kills the argument. He didn’t use his precious numbers to find deals, he had guys even the most old school traditional baseball men would go for.

It does what all other analysis does, takes into account measurable and predictable variables. But guess what, baseball is full of unpredictable things. Weather, sore muscles, a guy not getting enough sleep, endless intangibles.

Sure you can argue overtime a player’s ability to deal with such issues will factor into his numbers, but that is only in the long run not in a given season.

Part of my job is analysis and assessment of trends and data. One thing I have learned from this is you never really know what is gonna happen until you hit go. That’s why you play the game as they say.

So back to MVP thing.

One argument sabremetric dudes make is that all games are equal. What a guy does in April is worth the same as what a player does in late September. Try telling that to Arod and Jeter, I think their legacies will tell a different tale. Once again this takes away the immeasurable. In this case pressure. Performing when you have to in September to make the post season is much harder than winning n April.
Photobucket
Guys like Arod and Dave Winfield are famous for not putting up late season numbers. That matters.

WHIPs and TPR, WARs, while interesting and fine tools are just that, tools. They are not the end all be all. Adding up a players LMNOP score and picking the highest and giving him the trophy would be silly.

Luckily the baseball writers agree. Miggy won pretty handily.

Like I said this is not a knock on Trout. He is a baller! This is just a rant against giving any one analytical tool too much weight.

Also, big props to my boy Buster.
Photobucket
Mauer 2.0 is tearing it up!

All right, I will go and take a pill or something and settle down.

-K-

About these ads

13 responses to “Not a fan of sabremetrics…

  1. I agree with what you said here. I am not completely against sabremetrics, but how valuable can the end-all and be-all stat (WAR) if people can’t agree how to calculate it? Baseball reference does it one way, Fangraphs another, and I’m sure there are a couple more. They seem to pop up out of nowhere.

    The reason I like batting average as a stat is because everyone agrees how to calculate it. Hits divided by at bats. It’s simple, that is how I learned division in the first place.

    BTW, I can’t stand Buster Posey. He has the name of both a small dog and a flower. How can you like that? Good season, but I still don’t like him.

  2. Tell the Angels games in April don’t mean a thing. They do. You win a lot early, you’re not behind late. Also, Trout is BY FAR the better player and had the better season. Put aside stats even, he contributes in all three facets of the game.

    Cabrera is a hitter only.

    • I never said the games don’t mean anything in April, I am saying it is harder to perform under pressure in September down the stretch. So a player that can perform under that pressure has more value.

      Cabrera won the Triple Crown, end of discusion.

      • Pressure like being the tying run with two outs in the bottom of extra innings at home in a World Series elimination game? And you don’t lift the bat off your shoulder on a called third strike? That’s the problem when you rely on anecdotal evidence instead of season-long evidence.

        The Tigers making the playoffs had a lot to do with the White Sox collapse, not to mention them playing in the weakest division in the majors. That also speaks to the level of pitching Cabrera saw the most of. On the flipside, the Angels won more games in a much stronger division. If Trout were on the team in April, the Angels probably would have won enough extra games to at least sneak into the second wild card spot, considering that from the day he was called up, the Angels had the best record in the AL.

        As far as the triple crown goes, it’s neat and all but completely random. If Granderson or Hamilton hit two more homeruns, Cabrera isn’t the league leader and the triple crown is no longer relevant. The fact that the biggest part of the argument in his favor is reliant upon how other players perform is pretty backwards.

      • You say if Granderson or Hamilton had hit a few more homeruns, but they didn’t. For one player to have fewer homeruns means another has to have more. So there has to be some value in that.

        By that logic the Giants aren’t the World Series champions it’s just that every other team failed to win it.

        I never understood downplaying league leaders.

        You can play they what if game all day but in the end Miggy led all three of the big categories and he is the only guy to do that in 45 years. That is worthy of note.

      • The MVP is more than just who has the best stats in the ‘big three’ categories. RBIs are a useless for lead-off guys and OBP is a better metric for batting performance only measures the ‘hitting’ part.

      • Don’t worry, I think Trout will do just fine, I see plenty of MVPs awards in his future.

  3. Ask Ted Williams about Triple Crowns and MVP awards.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s