So Miggy knocked off Mike Trout for AL MVP.
I am a fan of Mike Trout but if you win the Triple Crown you get to be MVP, no questions!
Watching all the various baseball pundits debate the two sluggers that last few weeks it became a battle of old school versus new school. Miggy represented the old school straight stats and x-factor guys and Trout represented the new school cold and calculated sabremetric guys.
This kinda pissed me off a little. Let me let you in on a little secret. I hate sabremetrics, HATE IT!
It’s nerdy to the n-th degree and I will argue it doesn’t really get results.
If it was the secret key to baseball success where are all of Bill Beans rings? But what about Theo Epstein you say. He was a sabremetrics guy. Yeah but he also had the second highest pay role in baseball so it kinda kills the argument. He didn’t use his precious numbers to find deals, he had guys even the most old school traditional baseball men would go for.
It does what all other analysis does, takes into account measurable and predictable variables. But guess what, baseball is full of unpredictable things. Weather, sore muscles, a guy not getting enough sleep, endless intangibles.
Sure you can argue overtime a player’s ability to deal with such issues will factor into his numbers, but that is only in the long run not in a given season.
Part of my job is analysis and assessment of trends and data. One thing I have learned from this is you never really know what is gonna happen until you hit go. That’s why you play the game as they say.
So back to MVP thing.
One argument sabremetric dudes make is that all games are equal. What a guy does in April is worth the same as what a player does in late September. Try telling that to Arod and Jeter, I think their legacies will tell a different tale. Once again this takes away the immeasurable. In this case pressure. Performing when you have to in September to make the post season is much harder than winning n April.
Guys like Arod and Dave Winfield are famous for not putting up late season numbers. That matters.
WHIPs and TPR, WARs, while interesting and fine tools are just that, tools. They are not the end all be all. Adding up a players LMNOP score and picking the highest and giving him the trophy would be silly.
Luckily the baseball writers agree. Miggy won pretty handily.
Like I said this is not a knock on Trout. He is a baller! This is just a rant against giving any one analytical tool too much weight.
All right, I will go and take a pill or something and settle down.